Given the current political tension in Madagascar, risk of social crisis, economic and political are likely to worsen. So, CREM wants to sensitize all the Malagasy people on the importance of economic costs of a crisis. Currently, Madagascar still bears the costs of the various crises, in this case that of 2009.
Furthermore, Madagascar is ranked among the countries at risk and fragile. CREM draws the attention of all the living forces of the nation together to find a peaceful solution, while reflecting on the following risks if the crisis can not be ruled out:
- Risk of occurrence of 100,000 newly poor households annually (per capita income less than $1,90 PPP per day) ;
- chronic underemployment of the workforce (salary precarious) ;
- Pauperization of the informal sector;
- considerable loss of tax revenue due to the economic downturn;
- Streamline operations of international financial institutions;
- Decline in foreign direct investment;
- Fort risk of macroeconomic instability: inflationary pressure, high public deficit due to the slowdown in real economic growth, worsening trade deficit;
- Risk of unsustainable debt;
- Inefficiency of public spending at the expense of critical infrastructure ;
- massive drop;
- Closure of basic health centers in rural areas;
- tourism revenue drop;
- Rising cost of living;
- Disruption of trade relations, acting as an increase in trade costs. Ex: suspension of the eligibility of Madagascar AGOA.
- Increased corruption, especially quiet corruption;
- growing insecurity;
- Child malnutrition or lack of access to clean water (increased infant mortality).
The effects of an economic crisis in Madagascar are irreversible, difficult to overcome. This leads to a cyclical crisis. Poverty rates remain rigid and will not happen to reach the level it would have been without the crisis.